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Seaview. This year’s gathering of Pacific County
Republicans at their annual Lincoln Day Dinner will have a 2nd
Amendment focus. Prominent gun rights activist Alan Gottlieb will be the
featured speaker. Founder of The Second Amendment Foundation, leader of a host
of conservative groups, author of twenty books on politics and gun rights, Alan
Gottlieb is an articulate and dynamic defender of Americans’ Constitutional
rights. A frequent Fox News contributor,
he has also appeared on thousands of TV and radio talk shows.
“We are honored and energized by Alan Gottlieb coming to our
corner of SW Washington to share the importance of the 2nd
Amendment. The right to bear arms is the
keystone to defending the Bill of Rights”, states Brett Malin, Chairman of the
Pacific County Republicans. “The
Republican Party is the one party that supports your gun rights! We are asking all conservatives, hunters and
gun owners to join us for an evening of
fine speakers, fellowship and a Prime Rib Dinner!” In keeping with the 2nd
Amendment theme, there will be a raffle for a Remington 870 shotgun
(compliments of Sandy’s Guns and Ammo in Long Beach) and other gun accessories
in the silent auction. Donations for the
silent auction are being accepted.
Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler will also be in
attendance, and speak on the ongoing budget battles in Washington DC, as well
as other issues affecting the local area. Herrera Beutler is serving her second term in
office and serves on four important Committees, including a new appointment to
the vital Appropriations Committee. Both
Gottlieb and the Congresswoman will be joining the Social Hour.
The Social Hour, with silent auction and raffle, begins at
5:00pm, the prime rib dinner (still only $25!) will begin at 6:30 pm. The Lincoln Dinner will be held in South Bend on Saturday, March 23th at the Willapa Harbor Community Center
at First and Alder. For more info,
contact Brett Malin at 642-2444 or www.pacificgop.com.
Please mark you calendars, this year’s Lincoln Day Dinner will be held Saturday, March 23rd at the Willapa Harbor Chamber Building in South Bend. Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler is scheduled to attend, and we’re almost ready to announce our main speaker. (Hint: it will be topical to a big debate going on right now!)
Our February meeting will be at a familiar location: the Corner Café in Raymond. The new owner now has evening hours, so we’ll be meeting at 5:30 pm on Thursday, February 28th (you might want to be a little early if you’d like to order dinner before we start). The main item on the agenda will be preparations for the Lincoln Day Dinner.
This weekend in Olympia, the Washington State Republican Party held its biennial re-organizational meeting. Chairman Kirby Wilbur won re-election to his second term on the second ballot, after narrowly missing a majority in a three way race on the first ballot.
Luanne Van Werven of Whatcom County was elected Vice Chair, replacing Olga Miller, who stepped down after 6 years at the post. Olga has been a constant presence and source of support for Pacific County Republicans, and we’ll miss her. We wish Luanne all the best in her new position, and are sure she will do a great job.
One source of contention was in the acceptance of by-laws, specifically those dealing with the election of the Executive Board. The By-laws Committee was unable to recommend a new proposal for electing E-Board members by Congressional District, which was needed because of the changes from re-districting. A new proposal, one selecting E-Board members by regions, was developed at the 11th hour, and passed on Saturday after amendments. The new proposal expands the E-Board from 19 to 23 seats, and retains roughly the same apportionment of seats by population as the existing rules.
Our 3rd CD representatives to the E-Board, Ryan Hart and Colleen Morse, both stepped down from Party offices this year. Elected to replace them in the new 3rd Region (essentially identical to the 3rd CD) was myself and Ruth Peterson, Chair of Lewis County. We thank Ryan and Colleen for their service and wish them well.
On January 5th, the Pacific County Republican Party held its biennial re-organizational meeting, where the Precinct Committee Officers elected in last year’s Primary meet to elect the officers for the county organization. After record interest in PCO positions last year (filling 31 of our 39 precincts) we had a great turnout, with 21 PCOs attending on a cold Saturday morning.
All the current party officers were re-elected to another term, and the existing by-laws were ratified. Results of the party officer elections:
Chair – Brett Malin
Vice-Chair – Sue Patillo
State Committeeman – Jack Smith
State Committeewoman – Karla Webber
Treasurer – Penny Ripley
Secretary – Gretchen Sagen
A few thoughts concerning polling results that are popping up daily:
First of all, the election is still almost two months away; most people (non-political junkies) are just starting to pay attention. After the two conventions there were bounces and the numbers will continue to go up and down a few points with each week’s good and bad news.
Second, one thing almost all of the polls have one thing in common is that President Obama fails to garner 50% or more. After almost four years, he has not convinced a majority that he should be re-elected, and there is little that is likely to occur that will affect that in the next two months. It’s conventional wisdom, but it is also statistically true: the majority of those undecided will go to the challenger.
Taking a closer look at the polls showing Obama with a lead, it’s apparent they are correct: if the electorate in 2012 is the same as the one in 2008 (or even more Democratic), he may indeed win. Of course, if the electorate of 2012 looks more like the one in 2010, Mitt Romney wins easily.
At times we all wonder “In this economy, why isn’t Obama down by 15 points”. The answer is that, because of today’s political environment, President Obama is virtually guaranteed 40%-45% of the vote (just as is Mitt Romney). Remove 5%-10% who are undecided and it becomes apparent that either candidate will never lead any accurate poll by more than 5%-7%. There’s an old baseball saying that applies: Every team is going to win 60 games and lose 60 games, it’s what you in the other 42 games that determines a winning season.
Whether the Party composition of the poll sample matches who shows up to vote in November will determine much of its accuracy. Below is a graph of Party ID trends since 2004, based on Rasmussen’s tracking poll. As you can see, the Democrats had a slight edge in 2004 (~2%), which resulted in a narrow win by George Bush. In 2006, they opened a wide advantage (~6%) and in 2008 even wider (~7%), both big years for the Democrats. But when the advantage narrowed to about even in 2010, the Republicans had their best year in decades. Now granted this is just another poll, and just because it closely mirrors the election results and exit polls for the last four Presidential elections doesn’t mean that it is infallible in predicting the party split in 2012. Still, it shows that Republicans now have the advantage in party ID, meaning we are very likely to see an electorate in 2012 as favorable as the one in 2010, if not more favorable.
Here is an argument that I find brightens my spirits. Obama won in 2008 with 53% of the vote. Virtually every poll, even the ones heavily weighted with Democrats, indicates that his support is down across the board in 2012. All the state and national polls say he will get 5-10-15 points less that his winning margin in 2008; no one (not even the Obama campaign) thinks he is likely to improve his vote share. If Obama wins this election, he will win by getting less than 52% of the vote (and more than 49%). That’s it, that’s his entire window to winning, 49% to 51%. We don’t need to defeat a heavy favorite, just prevent Obama from eking out a narrow victory. And that, fellow Republicans, is very doable.
Come on down to the Fair this week (22nd-25th) and see our Republican Booth! County Commissioner candidate Scott McDougall will be working the fair all week, and State Rep candidate Dixie Kolditz and State Senate candidate Rick Winsman will be at the booth on Friday to meet the voters!
Pacific County and the rest of Washington reported the final results of the primary on August 21st. Although the new Top Two primary makes it hard to compare, our Republican candidates did receive more votes than we typically received under the old party primary system. We had 8 contested PCO races, congratulations to the winners; along with our 23 uncontested PCO's we managed to fill 31 the PCO position in 31 of 39 precincts! On the down side, turnout was disappointing, we have our work cut out for us to get the votes out that our candidates need to win in Pacific County. On the up side, our candidate for County Commissioner #1 - Scott McDougall - came in first out of four candidates with a solid 38%! Let's help him to victory in November!
Already under our belt: the Long Beach Loyalty Day Parade, the Ocean Park 4th of July Parade, and the Raymond Parade:
Our Republican of the Year Bill Nickila was joined by loyal volunteers who walked along, handing out candy and waving signs. (pictured at the Ocean Park Parade is our great friend Jimmie Applegate!)
Next up is the South Bend Labor Day Weekend Parade on September 2nd, it's your last chance to show your support for our Republican candidates! (and as your can see, the sun is guaranteed to shine on us!)
County Republicans will be giving a warm welcome to State Senator Michael
Baumgartner, the keynote speaker for their annual Republican Dinner held in
South Bend on Friday, March 30th.
Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler and Kirby Wilbur, State Republican
Chair, are among the VIP guests and candidates expected to join county
conservatives for the prime rib dinner and silent auction.
Baumgartner is running this year to replace Maria
Cantwell in the ‘other’ Senate in Washington DC. A fresh face in Washington politics, he
surprised many by returning the 6th District (Spokane) Senate seat
to Republican hands in 2010, winning in his first try at elected politics. Defeating an extremely well-funded incumbent,
Baumgartner won a very hard fought campaign for his Senate seat in the most
expensive state legislative political election in Washington history, by a
healthy margin of over 7%. Serving on
the Ways & Means Committee, Baumgartner has already made a big impact in
Olympia, helping craft last year’s bipartisan budget, as well as an important bill
that reformed state government.
“We kept the price at $25 this year, so that everyone can
enjoy the food, fellowship and excellent speakers”, said Brett Malin, Pacific
County Republican Chairman. “Michael
Baumgartner took part in passing another bipartisan budget in the Senate this year. This sustainable budget was supported by three
Democrat Senators who refused to back the irresponsible budget proposed by
members of their own party. Michael is a very impressive young man, and I know
Pacific County will be as impressed by him as well.”
The Lincoln Dinner will be held at the Willapa Harbor
Community Building in South Bend. The Social Hour and Silent Auction begin at
5pm and Dinner will be served at 6:30pm. To reserve your $25 ticket, call Brett
Malin 360-642-2444 or email firstname.lastname@example.org. More information can be found at www.pacificgop.com.